{{r.fundCode}} {{r.fundName}} {{r.series}} {{r.assetClass}}

Welcome to the new RBC iShares digital experience.

Find all things ETFs here: investment strategies, products, insights and more.

.hero-subtitle{ width: 80%; } .hero-energy-lines { width: 70%; right: -10; bottom: -15; } @media (max-width: 575.98px) { .hero-energy-lines { background-size: 200% auto; width: 100%; } }
by  Jeremy Richardson Apr 22, 2021

This month, Jeremy Richardson comments on key developments in the United States. He discusses their positive vaccination progress, as well as Biden's US$2 trillion stimulus package to rebuild infrastructure and reshape the economy.

Watch time: 4 minutes 51 seconds

View transcript

Hello. This is Jeremy Richardson from the RBC Global Equity Team here with another update.

And it was a really interesting month in March where we think equity markets received confirmation of two important things. The first of which was news that the U.S. vaccination program has been so successful, beating initial expectations. If we think back to when President Biden first entered the White House, he had what many people referred to or thought was an audacious goal to vaccinate 100 million Americans in the first 100 days. Well, it looks as though those targets are being met and even exceeded.

And this, I think, is a very positive development, not just socially, but also economically because with that mass vaccination comes the prospect of economic normalization. We can return to life pre-pandemic so to speak. And that’s actually going to be very good for not only society, but also actually provides a very positive backdrop for corporate profitability as well.

The second issue that I think the market also found some very welcome confirmation of was the fact that the $2 trillion stimulus package that President Biden has been proposing has not had to be significantly revised for it to get Senate approval. And this is important because it’s a real shot in the arm to economic recovery.

So those two very positive developments, I think, have really set the tone for equity markets over the course of March, and that has largely been reflected not only in the headline index levels, which have continued to progress, but also where the performance has been coming from within the market.

And I think one of the things that really defines the last few weeks is that we’ve seen the strongest performance from those business models that were most heavily impacted by the pandemic this time last year. So those business models that relied upon people meeting people, which were those business models that ended up essentially not being able to trade for a long period of time, meaning that they ended up having to utilize a lot of their own cash reserves and resources.

That’s led a number of business models with low levels of profitability, high levels of leverage, which, with this renewed economic confidence that we’re seeing now play out, has given them a second lease of life. So they’ve bounced and some of them have bounced very, very strongly.

Now, that’s great news for those businesses and for those investors who have shares in them, but for fundamental long-term shareholders like ourselves, I’ll be honest, we’re not terribly drawn to the business models which have got high levels of debt and low levels of profitability. It doesn’t feel to us like a winning combination over the long run.

So we’ve tended to steer clear away from those types of business models. And when we get episodes such as this, where you get that strong [junk] rally so to speak, then that can create a little bit of a headwind for fundamental long-term investors like ourselves.

However, we’re not downhearted by any means because we know that these episodes are usually of short duration. And the reason for that is because the single biggest determinant to share price performance over the long run is the company fundamentals themselves. And actually, interestingly, we’re beginning to see maybe the beginnings of the end of this sort of market narrative as much more balanced performance seems to be accumulating within the equity market over the course of the last few days or so.

Now, to me, this makes a degree of intuitive sense because, to the extent that investors recently have been playing a reopening trade, then one would think by nature that should be of short duration because reopenings can only really happen once, you know, assuming, of course, that there’s no new pandemic or at least no new significant variants.

So that, I think, leaves investors like ourselves, I think, confident that in the long run that it’s going to be company fundamentals that ultimately would be driving share prices. And hopefully, as we move through over the course of 2021, and we’ve got the Q1 earnings season now just upon us, that will provide confirmation that those fundamentals are improving with that profit backdrop and that will result in shareholder value accretion coming through in share prices.

I hope that’s been of interest and I look forward to catching up with you again soon.



Get the latest insights from RBC Global Asset Management.

Originally published on April 16, 2021

Disclosure

This document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM) for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written consent of RBC GAM or its affiliated entities listed herein. This document does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or to sell any security, product or service in any jurisdiction; nor is it intended to provide investment, financial, legal, accounting, tax, or other advice and such information should not be relied or acted upon for providing such advice. This document is not available for distribution to investors in jurisdictions where such distribution would be prohibited.


RBC GAM is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes RBC Global Asset Management Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited, and BlueBay Asset Management LLP, which are separate, but affiliated subsidiaries of RBC.


In Canada, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (including PH&N Institutional) which is regulated by each provincial and territorial securities commission with which it is registered. In the United States, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., a federally registered investment adviser. In Europe this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.


Additional information about RBC GAM may be found at www.rbcgam.com.


This document has not been reviewed by, and is not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate and permissible, be distributed by the above-listed entities in their respective jurisdictions.


Any investment and economic outlook information contained in this document has been compiled by RBC GAM from various sources. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBC GAM, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. RBC GAM and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions.
Opinions contained herein reflect the judgment and thought leadership of RBC GAM and are subject to change at any time. Such opinions are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment or financial advice and should not be relied or acted upon for providing such advice. RBC GAM does not undertake any obligation or responsibility to update such opinions.


RBC GAM reserves the right at any time and without notice to change, amend or cease publication of this information.


Past performance is not indicative of future results. With all investments there is a risk of loss of all or a portion of the amount invested. Where return estimates are shown, these are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as a prediction of returns; actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially, especially over shorter time periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.


Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward-looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future results or events. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Do not place undue reliance on these statements because actual results or events may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Before making any investment decisions, we encourage you to consider all relevant factors carefully.

® / TM Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence.

© RBC Global Asset Management Inc. 2021