Transcript
Hello and welcome to The Download. I'm your host, Dave Richardson. And it is time to catch up with the guy that we just never seem to catch up enough with, although I see him all the time, but I should have him on the podcast more, Scott Lysakowski, who is the head of Canadian equity at Phillips, Hager & North. And Scott, is that the right title, by the way?
I think so. I don't know. I think that sounds about right. I'll take it.
You're such a humble guy. I think we even told the story back on one of your first appearances. When I met Scott, he was a junior portfolio manager, and they basically had him working in a closet in one of the big towers in downtown Toronto.
I shared a very small office with another young analyst colleague of mine.
Yeah. And then look what you've grown into. But again, you were just plucking away. I just remember coming seeing you. I said, that guy is going to be something because he's smart and he just works like a dog. And then sure enough, now you're out in the big tower in Vancouver, a luxurious office overlooking the bay, and you're running Canadian equities.
What can I say, Dave? Hard work. What do they say? Good luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity? And lots of help from nice people like you, Dave.
I had absolutely nothing to do with it. But Canada is a hot topic. Normally, Canada, 2% of the world, even for Canadian investors, can be at times an afterthought. And we'll talk, as we normally do, the Canadian market is concentrated, which makes it a niche in a way, and which is why Canadians have to look elsewhere for diversification. But if we just look at the Canadian market in general right now, lots of interesting things going on. I think the last time we had you on, we were in the early stages of the tariff discussion. Where do you think we sit now? Has anything changed from your perspective, or is it still, we just don't know, shrug your shoulders and wait for the next Trump announcement?
Well, certainly lots of things are changing. Some things are remaining. You point out Canada. In Canadian dollars, the TSX is up 2.5% so far, year to date, and that's outperforming the US. So the S&P 500 in Canadian dollars is down 6%. So this is not exactly how I would have drawn up Canada's relative outperformance versus the US. And I think it's probably less so about Canada being really strong. It's more about some of the inner workings and things happening in the US market. From what we've seen, we're well into I don't know if we're calling it a great rotation, but a big unwind of this really strong outperformance of those MAG7 or the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500. Canada is benefiting from that. Other markets globally are up even more. It's not so much a Canada thing, but it's just a US underperformance thing. As far as the tariffs go, lots is changing on that front, changing hour by hour. We just sat in two and a half days of strategy sessions with our global strategy group and lots of discussion around tariffs. I think one of my takeaways was that while uncertainty may have peaked and we're off the highs of uncertainty, it still is relatively high. The one thing that is certain is uncertainty. I think the debate comes around recession versus no recession. That's a function of tariffs, and we don't really know. We saw a deal with the UK. There are talks about a deal with China. Trump says he's got all these deals on the table ready to transact. There may be some good things that come out of that. But I think the key thing for me is that we're living in a world of uncertainty. If you're thinking about planning a business, some key decisions, it's really hard to plan for your business with this level of uncertainty. We saw the markets in early April really plunge down. We saw the VIX spike up to 50 or 60, volatility really getting high and market selling off. There was some relief, and there's been a significant relief rally from there on that 90-day pause on tariff announcements and the tariff implementation. Of course, the markets enjoyed that. The thing that worries me about that is that's just 90 more days of uncertainty. As I was saying, it's really hard to plan a business in an uncertain environment, and we're starting to see some of the impacts of that. That was my main concern as well. It's not just, well, one day we could wake up and there could be a big tweet saying the tariffs are all done and we're back to a regular economy. I just think that we've spent enough time. We're five months into the year, so it's been five months of uncertainty. But when we talk to companies, there was some uncertainty leading into this year and leading into the election. We're getting north of six months of this uncertainty, and we're starting to see the impact. Some of the things that I see out of the headlines. Well, today we saw the Canadian unemployment rate tick up to 6.9%. That's a slight uptick, and a lot of it is driven from no new jobs in the manufacturing sector. We've seen some auto plants being idled or temporarily shut in this uncertainty around tariffs. The rubber is starting to hit the road on those sorts of things. We've seen there was a large energy infrastructure project, a chemical pet chem plant in Alberta, $3 billion investment from a US company. That was put on pause. These are the things that are on the surface. There's likely many of these types of decisions. When you're thinking about key business decisions, we're talking about capital investment, we're talking about employment, and we're talking about M&A. It's been pens down on pretty much all those things. The rubber is going to start to hit the road. We don't necessarily have to have a recession for those to have an impact. If we have some moderate tariff scenario, but just six months of uncertainty, we're going to knock a point or two or we're going to take some of the headwinds or some of the strength out of our GDP number, and that's going to flow through. We've already started to see negative estimate revisions for the TSX. While on the margin, we're seeing some positive news on the tariff front. Tariff deals, maybe things not as bad as they once were proposed on that Liberation Day, but there's been enough uncertainty that I think is going to cause some headwinds for earnings and of course, for stocks as well.
Yeah. And we've talked about on many previous episodes with other guests about the whole idea that you're talking about, this pause. We get uncertainty, and when there's uncertainty, people react in different ways. But oftentimes, from a business perspective, with this uncertainty, it's going to create paralysis. You're just going to step back and wait and say, hey, I need to get a little bit more clarity before I'm going to go forward with something. And one month becomes two months, becomes three, becomes six, becomes nine. It likely isn't something like a natural disaster, for example. A hurricane passed through Florida. What will happen is isolated into that one region, you have a lot of damage, and basically it stops economic activity for a little while as you're cleaning up, but then the rebuild actually adds economic growth. This isn't really that, because when you're talking about capital expenditure, this happens over months or years these projects run. Once you get past this, it's not like you're going to have this big, all of a sudden, massive spike in activity. It's just going to progress. You've just had a delay of several months. It's really difficult in terms of what it's going to do for companies, as you say, those negative revisions, and what Scott's talking about with negative revisions, means at the start of the year, he's going to look at a company, he's going to say that company is going to make X millions of dollars of profit this year. That was in January, and now he's sitting here in May, and he goes, well, now it's going to be that X number a million minus maybe 2% of what we expected. Of course, when that expectation for profits comes down, that's tough on the stock because the stock is reflecting expectations of a certain level of profits, and then those profits come down, and that's not good for the stock. When that happens across an entire market, well, that's when we see some of what we saw in the pullback. Another thing I wanted to check back. I know we've got a lot of new listeners on every episode. And again, thank you for joining us. Please subscribe to us wherever you get your podcast. If watching us on video, which is a shame, looking at the two of us this morning, but you can subscribe to or follow us on YouTube as well. But we always like to check on terms of the VIX you mentioned. The VIX is a measure of volatility. And if we think of last year where markets were very good, not too much volatility through the year, the VIX was running in the 13 to 18 range most of the year. You had a little spike at one point. But to see the VIX for the better part of this year sitting above 20, and during that period in April, spike up into the 50 to 60 range. These are historic spikes in volatility. If you think it feels unusual what we've been going through the last three months, you are correct, and we've got the measure of that. Then the question is, where do we go from here?
Yeah. Sorry, that was a little baseball inside, so I'll keep it high level. I know my mom's going to be listening, and she'll ask me, what is the VIX? We started to see, actually to that point, this volatility. Does it feel greater than normal? Yes, a big spike up in volatility, as we talked about in the VIX, is unusual. But what is interesting is that the average intra-year drawdown for the TSX is about 15%. Let me explain what intra-year drawdown means. So as you go throughout the course of the year, you go from the highest point of the stock market for the year down to the lowest point. That's what we call an intra-year drawdown. The biggest negative decline throughout the course of any year. The long-term average is 15%. We've seen a drawdown of about 12% this year. We're within the normal range. Last year, a very good year for the TSX—we were positive 22% on the total return—and the intra-year drawdown was only 5%. That was actually an abnormal year. Sometimes we get a bit of recency bias as we're saying, wow, this year is really different. We're halfway through the year and we're only up 2%. Stocks have gone up, stocks have gone down. Last year, I got 22%, and they never really went down. We have to remember that type of volatility, a big spike up in the VIX, now that we all know what that is, maybe is certainly unusual. But a drawdown in the 15% range is quite normal. One of the other things that we've been thinking about, we're right in the middle of earnings season, and you're talking about estimate revision. When we started the year, analysts were forecasting earnings growth for all the companies in the TSX of about 9 to 10%. That seemed reasonable, but as we got into this noise around tariffs and some of the uncertainty, that seemed a little bit suspect. That number has started to come down. The Southside analysts, all the brokerage firms out there, they're forecasting their earnings for each of the companies that they follow, and they do a fantastic job, they're not lazy, but they're just late. They're reticent to take their numbers down because they've put so much work into their models and they say, no, I really think this company can deliver this earnings growth. Then maybe they get a little bit worried as all this uncertainty, and they say, maybe I'll wait for the quarter reports. Most companies are reporting their first quarter of the year. This week is one of the heaviest for earnings reports. And we're seeing a couple of things. One, the earnings actually aren't bad. Now, we have to remember, we're looking in the rear-view mirror. This is the first quarter. This is January through March, for most companies. So this is the rear-view mirror. Things were fine. There was some uncertainty in the headlines, uncertainty in the air, but it was business as usual. The earnings numbers are actually fine. The earnings are coming in either close to expectations or even slightly ahead of expectations. Free cash flow generation is strong, and companies are generally well capitalized. So the earnings numbers actually look okay. But of course, the market is forward-looking. What we're really focused on is the forecast and the outlook. And that's where it gets a little bit muddy. We've either seen companies reduce their guidance for 2025 just because of the uncertainty. We've seen companies just flat out pull their guidance. They just throw their hands up in the air and say, we have no clue what this year looks like. We’ve seen the airlines just say, we have no idea what the world's going to look like, so we're just going to pull our guidance. We've seen guidance reduced or companies that are in the crosshairs of tariffs are starting to say, it's so uncertain. Generally speaking, we know our business fairly well in normal conditions, but man, this is really not normal, so the guidance outlook is quite negative Then, of course, what we start to see going into and coming out of the quarter, we're going to start to see those negative estimate revisions. So that 9 to 10% earnings growth that we saw at the beginning of the year, that's now a 5 to 6% number. And on the margin, as an investor, the best thing about the stock market is that usually the concern shows up in price first. Stocks go down, and then the estimates follow. There's a bit of art and science, but there's a moment near the bottom of these periods of equity market weakness where the market is placing a fairly low expectation on a low earnings forecast. That's actually a fantastic opportunity. It's not great for the stocks you own because they've gone down quite a bit. But I think we've talked about this on the podcast before, we are very process-oriented. We're very disciplined. I've got the note on my screen—I'm staring at it right now—volatility creates opportunity. We think in scenarios; we've prepared ourselves for what would a bad case be. Here's a company that is affected by tariffs. Maybe it's an auto parts manufacturer. How bad could their earnings really be? Then what if the market put a really low valuation metric multiple on that low earnings estimate? Well, that's going to equal a certain share price. Not to say it's going to go there, but we just know that that's one end of the range of outcomes. Then if everything's great in three years and all this tariff stuff goes away and the economy is in full swing and the company is at peak profitability, what's the earnings forecast and what type of multiple, what type of valuation will the market put out? That's your upside. As the market goes down, as stocks go down and they get towards that bear case, we actually call that our buy scenario. That's the scenario we want to buy the stock because the bad news is being priced in. Your risk-reward trade-off actually looks fairly attractive. Maybe it's a bit counterintuitive, but this is our job. I'm going to buy this stock, or I'm going to start to buy the stock, or I'm going to build a position in the stock because there's a lot of bad news priced in, and the market isn't even considering how much the stock could go up in a recovery. We basically just do that every day. We're big believers in that book Superforecasting. We forecast, measure, revise, and repeat. Every day we're looking at the risk-reward opportunities and updating our forecast and updating our scenarios based on the news that's coming at us, whether it's from tweets from the President, macroeconomic indicators, unemployment rates, GDP growth, etc. Or what we really focus on is the company-specific. In this week of earnings, the team is just pouring over and it's coming fast and furious. We've got dozens of companies reporting earnings a day, looking for the incremental tidbits. Are things getting better? Are things getting worse within that company? A long-winded answer, but we're starting to see those estimate revisions come down, which is going to weigh on stocks in near term, especially as the price has recovered. We're playing this delicate dance. But as we go through, if the economic data has these analysts taking their numbers down, we're going to perhaps set ourselves up for a great opportunity to buy some stocks that have a low valuation placed on a low earnings forecast. To us, that's a fantastic opportunity to invest and make money for our clients.
Scott, one of the things that we've been trying to do with this podcast over the last several years. We've highlighted this on numerous occasions, and the great thing is, it's probably easier to highlight this to Canadians than anyone else. One of the most famous sports stories of all time comes out of Canada, hockey, Wayne Gretszky, the greatest hockey player of all time, although I would debate that. I like Bobby Orr. Sorry, everyone listening in Edmonton. But the whole idea that what the average player does is skating to the puck. And Wayne Gretszky said, I skate to where the puck is going to go. And that is what you need to do when you're looking at the stock market because you're looking out, as Scott said. You're looking at the forecast. The market is reflecting what's going to happen 9 months, 12 months out in terms of where profits are going to be. You need to start skating or investing or thinking about how you're going to invest out into the future. Don't get caught up in today. If you look at March 9th, 2009, when the stock market bottomed in the global financial crisis. You pull up the headlines from that day. There is no good news around the economy, if you pick up a newspaper from March 9th, 2009. But the stock market reversed and went on what is now a 15-year massive bull market. You need to look forward. That discipline is really demonstrated better than anything I know by someone like Scott or a professional investor. That's what we're trying to do on this podcast, is introduce you to these professional investors and the way they're thinking about and listen to what Scott's talking about in terms of process, analyze, forecast, reevaluate, reset. The market is doing that in real-time every minute of every day. As an investor, you need to be doing that as well and think forward. You don't have the time to do that? Great. You can hire somebody like Scott to manage your money for you. But this is how you get better at investing. Thinking about how, okay, the puck’s right here, but I need to think about where that puck’s going. That's really critical. Scott, that's where we're sitting with the Canadian market. Now, overall, and we talked about this with some of the other guests, the Canadian stock market has been a relative underperformer to the US. It's not that surprising for Canada and a lot of markets around the world. We had Dave Lambert on the last episode, managing money in Europe. Same idea. For years and years, a lot of great businesses operating internationally. But some of the domestic businesses really struggling, with valuations very low. You just needed a trigger to get things to reverse. And all of a sudden, Europe's moving. And as you highlighted, you've got the numbers, Canadian market, particularly in Canadian dollars, outperforming the US so far this year.
Yeah. There's some work that was done by one of the Southside brokerage firm, one of the big research shops down in the US. And they put together this Canada cycle indicator. And it's a composite of these indicators. And they try to build this index that tries to predict when Canada will outperform the US. They've got this data set going back, I think, to the 1950s. If I threw it up on a chart, it looks like a bunch of spaghetti, but the lines actually do move together. It actually does a reasonably good job. The key drivers of that relative outperformance—I've got this chart in my presentation, which you've likely seen—is showing Canada, the relative performance versus the US is not something that happens year to year. It's a multi-year, it's a decade-long trend. We've underperformed for 12 years or something like that, north of 10. But prior to that, we outperformed for 10. I overlay that with this Canada cycle indicator work and say, I can't predict if this is going to be the year, I probably would have predicted that this would have been a year for the last 12 years. It's hard to predict. We think about what the necessary conditions are. What's the macro environment? Some of the drivers are very obvious, but a couple of them are relative interest rates. We saw the yield on the 10-year Canada significantly or meaningfully lower than the US 10-year. With that unemployment number this morning, I think the likelihood of a Bank of Canada cut—they've been very disciplined and will be patient—but the market is discounting them to cut at some point this year to support that. So that's good. They're cutting for things that are bad, but the fact that they are going to have a lower rate, that's supportive monetary policy. The other one is the estimate revision. We talked about the fact that Canada's estimate revisions were going down. But prior to that, they were actually going up, and believe it or not, at a faster rate than the US. That's an interesting dynamic, but you're going to see estimate revisions for the US likely go down as well. That relative game, probably a wash. But of course, we know the big one is commodities. It's very rare for Canada to outperform when commodities are not strong. But when commodities are strong, it's highly likely that Canada will outperform. Commodities are a bit of a mixed bag, and I'm sure you're going to ask me about the individual ones, but I'd say, generally speaking, some commodities have been stronger than others. Obviously, you're going to have commodities that are economically sensitive, things like oil and copper. We're seeing some volatility in those commodities as well, but the big one is gold. You were going to ask me about gold and I don't know what your specific question is, but gold has been exceptionally strong. A number of drivers of that strength. Gold stocks are now 10% of the TSX. Gold is up probably 40 to 50% in the last year. The stocks are up the same. Gold stocks are probably up 30%, even just this year, year to date. They've been very, very strong. The thing with commodities is that they're really hard to predict. I haven't given up on it, but I think I'm just mindful of my ability to predict these things, especially in the short term. But I'm a Canadian equity money manager. Energy and materials are a significant portion of our market, so I can't just ignore them. I have to understand them, but I'm very mindful not to take a lot of risk in trying to predict their direction. The one thing that I follow very closely—again, we're talking about the analysts forecast—is the relationship between where the analysts forecast is and the spot price. Because the analysts, if you're an energy analyst or a commodity analyst, that is your job. They cannot just say, you know what? I'm not going to predict the commodity. That is their job to try to predict it. It's a very tough job, and I'm very thankful for them to try. Therefore, I don't have to. But I always think about that relationship between where is the spot price and where is the analysts forecast. That's really going to drive this direction for the earnings forecast for the stocks. If you think about it, if you're an energy analyst in Canada and you're thinking, well, I think the oil price is going to be 70 for this year, and they picked that number, and the oil price today is 60. Well, every day that ticks by that the oil price is not 70 but it's 60, their earnings forecast looks really wrong because, of course, we know a $10 difference in oil prices means a lot for these companies' earnings and free cash flow generation. So over time, if you're that analyst, especially as you get close to that quarterly reporting, you're like, geez, this 70 looks a little high. Oil price is 60. I better take my numbers down. And so each quarter, their number is going to come down until they get there. And of course, you know what happens, Dave? When it gets to 60, they say, guess what? It's going to 50. And they take their numbers down too much. Again, that's that low expectation set up. If you look at it today, oil is 60. Analyst forecast for the oil price is about 65. Those numbers need to come down. Let's talk about gold. What is gold today? 3,400? Just under 3,300? The analysts forecast for gold is 2,800. They're significantly below. Maybe they're right. So either the gold price has to go down or their numbers have to go up. I don't know, but that's just a dynamic that we follow very closely. We were talking to a gold analyst in the last couple of weeks, and I said, gold's 3,400, your forecast is 2,800. What are you going to do? And he just said, I can't. I can't put $3,000 gold in my models. Maybe they'll be right, who knows? But at some point, every quarter that goes by, they're going to have to take their numbers up. I think I said gold stocks are now 10% of the TSX, and gold is significantly higher than where the analysts forecasts are. That means positive estimate revisions going forward for gold stocks. We've seen that the earnings for the TSX are coming down. Within that, there's lots of movements between the sectors. Estimate forecast for gold stocks have been going up significantly. Those are things that we're very mindful of, especially when it relates to commodities.
Yeah. I always like to jump in whenever we are talking about gold on a podcast for lots of different types of investors, but generally, it’s a balanced investor who's listening to the podcast, a balanced investor in Canada. When you see gold running like this, people get excited. I want to own gold. Then you make that statement, which is so critical, the TSX is 10% gold. So if I own a diversified portfolio—say even the portfolio that you're running, Scott—at the right level, 10% of that Canadian equity fund is in gold. That's a pretty decent exposure to the gold market. The other factor is that one of the preconditions for strong gold is a weak US dollar. So just by virtue of being here in Canada and earning money in Canada and having property in Canada, having our Canadian stocks, which are denominated in Canadian dollars against a weak US dollar, we're benefiting just from being here in the same way gold benefits from that weaker US dollar. So you don't need to rush out and start buying blocks, have the gold piling up, create a wall in front of your house. Most Canadians have a decent exposure to gold, and it's nice when it does take a little bit of run because it's a little wind in the sail of the TSX on a relative basis. But you don't need to overexpose yourself to gold.
Yeah, that's a really good point. It’s at 10%, it was 2%. It's had a big move. Gold is probably the hardest commodity to predict because it doesn't have an industrial use. At least oil and copper, they have an industrial use. Particularly for oil, once it's used, it's gone. So it needs to get replaced. While it's really hard to predict, there's lots of moving parts to the oil price, but you can wrap your head around the price that's required to bring on new supply. One interesting data point that came out of earnings this week is that the oil price has been weak. I say it's 60 today, but it got down as low as 55. There's rumbling around OPEC, and that's where it gets really complicated. But what we really listen to is, what are the companies doing? We could talk about what Trump wants from a tweet, and we can talk about even what OPEC says on a headline. I have no clue what they're thinking. But what are the companies doing? They're the actual operators of businesses that are producing this commodity. What are they saying? We saw a fairly large US oil producer this week say that they are going to pull back their spending. They're saying that the current oil environment just really doesn't justify them spending extra capital to grow. That gives a signal. These are the levels at which producers are saying, it’s not worth it for us to take the oil out of the ground, so we're going to wait. Some companies are in better position to wait than others. Either some companies might really need to replace that and be really constrained for their cash flow. Some companies can patiently wait and say, we got a strong balance sheet. We've got a great cost structure. We're not in any rush to bring this oil out of the ground. That's something that's interesting is that you're seeing some discipline around the actual producers of the commodity saying, you know what? 60 is too low. The environment's too uncertain. We're going to wait. That helps. I don't want to say this is the bottom in oil prices, but it helps build some evidence around the support of like, okay, this is a price at which marginal new supply does not make sense. So that's a really interesting data point for us. You mentioned the currency, the US dollar has been weak, but the Canadian dollar has been weak too. We're starting to see some life in the Canadian dollar, but prior to this, it was really weak. That's tough for a lot of things, especially Canadians traveling to the US, those sorts of things, importing things in US dollars. It's really good for commodity producers. And maybe it's getting a little less good just because we've seen a move in in the strength in the Canadian dollar. But if you think about what does $60 mean for most of the Canadian oil production, we know that most of the production comes from the oil sands. If you think about $60 US, that's the headline price that you see, WTI, light crude. Canadian heavy oil is what we produce. That's what comes out of the oil sands. That trades at a differential that is about $9. You think about that, we're getting $51 for our Canadian heavy crude. If you think about the Canadian dollar at 72 cents, we're getting 51 US for heavy oil, we convert that into Canadian dollars, that's about 70. That's pretty good. It was 80 a few weeks ago or a month ago, so it's maybe not as good, but 70 is actually really good. When you think about the actual businesses, the big energy-producing companies in Canada, at $70 Canadian, their businesses are absolutely fine. The oil price has put the stocks under pressure. The estimates have to come down. Then we think about what's the health of the business in this environment, they're actually fine. Their balance sheet, they've been very disciplined—I think we've talked about that many times in the podcast before—very disciplined with capital. They've been getting their balance sheets in shape. At $70 oil, they generate free cash flow. Their balance sheets are in really in good shape. They may dial back their growth a little bit, but they can maintain their current level of production. Some of the things that happen at $80 plus oil, like share buybacks, big dividend increases, might be a little bit tampered, but they're still able to return capital to shareholders. Again, that weakness in the oil price is testing these companies, but they're not putting them into a stressful situation or even close to a stressful situation. Then if we think about, well, what's the low case? If oil went down another $10, it wouldn't be great for the stocks. That estimate revision game would have to really accelerate, but the balance sheets would be in decent shape. They'd actually still generate free cash flow. Again, that scenario analysis really helps us navigate through this period of uncertainty in things like commodity prices.
One other thing, I don't think we go through a podcast about the Canadian markets without mentioning it has some fantastic dividend-paying stocks. What you're highlighting within energy is, even at these reduced prices—maybe the base value of the stock itself is not going to be positive or you're not going to see the same upside, maybe see some downside—but they're still generating that cash flow. That cash flow allows them to pay out to their shareholders those dividends. For the listeners who want to generate dividend income in their portfolio, it still ends up being a good spot to be invested, and tax-efficient income as well.
Yeah, that's for sure. One of the charts that I've had in my presentation deck recently, making the case for Canadian equities, previously, it was around GICs and the money on the sidelines. The folks in GICs are pretty happy that they've been getting that guaranteed return. But the proposition still exists, whether you're looking at a GIC, which has probably got a three-handle on it in terms of a yield or a government Canada bond. The TSX is yielding close to 3%. You get a 3% dividend yield just for showing up. When you think about on a tax advantage basis, that is certainly better than what you get with a GIC and better than a government Canada bond. But even if you factor in a universe of Canadian bonds that includes some corporates and some higher yielding bonds, that’s still a fairly competitive offering. That proposition still exists today.
Which is why it's so important to be working with an advisor, putting together a financial plan, and doing some of those analytics, because it's not necessarily in Canada. We have taxes here, last time I checked. What's important is not what you get, it's ultimately what you keep. You want to do that analysis. Dividend income versus interest income can be two very different beast when you look at it on an after-tax basis. Well, Scott, we've run a long time. So again, it just comes back to we got to get you on more often. I think I commit to this every time we speak, but we're going to really stick to it. I'm looking forward to seeing you on Tuesday, next week. I'm going to be out in Vancouver with you, and you're going to be talking to an enormous group of advisors. I hope you're not going to be intimidated by the size of the crowd.
I'll be ready. Spring is in full swing here in Vancouver so I think you'll enjoy your time here.
Well, as I did with Dave Lambert, when we had him on the other day, we went out and grabbed a tea. So I'm looking forward to grabbing a tea or coffee with you.
Yeah, maybe we’ll go to our spot.
Or a sparkling water, something like that.
Yeah, that's right. Okay, Dave. Thank you.
Thank you, Scott. Take care. We'll see you soon.
Okay. Thanks, Dave.