Economy
The heightened activity and lack of clarity around U.S. policy threatens to temporarily slow economic growth as businesses and households opt to delay key decisions.
Fixed income
The key threat to fixed income investors would be an upside surprise to inflation caused by unfavourable trade policies, but that upward pressure could be offset by weaker growth conditions.
Equity markets
Our return estimates range from mid- to high-single digit returns over the year ahead depending on the region, but large error bands exist around our central forecasts.
Executive summary
Uncertainty abounds as the trade war threatens economic growth, complicates the outlook on inflation, and stokes financial-market volatility, causing investors to weigh a wide range of possible outcomes. In this environment, stocks are under pressure as investors shun expensive U.S. large-cap growth stocks in favour of those with more reasonable valuations.
-
Canada
Canada’s economy showed some improvement into the end of 2024, helped by rising consumer spending and better housing investment thanks to lower interest rates.
-
United States
Consensus is for 10% profit growth for the S&P 500 in 2025. This bar is high but achievable without serious policy error.
-
Europe
The eurozone faces headwinds, with the currency bloc’s economic performance continuing to trail the U.S. amid trade uncertainty and slack business confidence.
-
Asia
We expect Asian equity volatility in 2025 as President Trump enacts his trade policies.
-
Emerging markets
Earnings growth should become a key driver of emerging market equities returns in 2025.