Taming persistently high inflation has been the focus of central banks and investors this year.
The economy has been incredibly resilient, growing at a pace that was above the historical average during the first half of this year, even as policy rates reached their highest in more than two decades.
European stocks continue to face headwinds from a weak macroeconomic backdrop, with high inflation and a besieged consumer.
Asian equities rose modestly in the three months ended August 31, 2023, bolstered by regulatory reform in Japan and firm economic growth outside China.
We expect earnings growth in emerging markets to rise faster than in developed markets over the next two years.
Executive summary
Most major economies have continued to expand so far this year and some of the key risks to growth have diminished. Inflation has moderated from an extreme, stress in the U.S. regional-banking system has eased, risk assets have rallied and North America’s housing market rebounded in the spring. But offsetting this long list of positives is the fact that the most critical headwinds have intensified.
Economy
We continue to expect a recession in most of the developed world over the year ahead, though its contours should be mild in depth and short in duration.
Fixed income
Government-bond yields have climbed to their highest levels since just before the 2008/2009 global financial crisis and at this point represent attractive value.
Equity Markets
Global stocks extended their gains in the past quarter, but underlying stock market breadth has been relatively poor.