Evolving threats could be a boon for cybersecurity investments

New digital infrastructure and lasting work-from-home arrangements are bringing data proliferation to new extremes, with cyberattacks accelerating in tow. Cybersecurity companies are taking centre-stage as businesses and governments strive to stay a step ahead.

In 2021, global volumes of new data grew 92% from 2019’s pre-pandemic levels, while instances of cyberattacks rose dramatically.⁴ Cybercriminals are taking advantage of more and increasingly diverse infection vectors. In 2021, the number of published common software and hardware vulnerabilities broke the annual record for the fifth year running.⁵

Four types of cyberattacks comprise the bulk of malicious activity:

• Ransomware attacks block access to data and/or publish it unless a ransom is paid. These attacks are getting increasingly sophisticated, not only demanding ransom from organizations but also from employees and customers, in what is called triple extortion. Last year, the world’s largest meat supplier was forced to pay US$11 million in ransom, the result of just one attack.⁶
• Business email compromise (BEC) attacks entail impersonating organization email addresses or gaining actual access to organizational email accounts. These attacks steal data directly, harvest credentials, and/or trick email recipients into providing private network access via malware attachments or malicious links.
• Distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks overwhelm servers with traffic. Generally, cybercriminals conduct these attacks to inhibit operations and inflict reputational damage, rather than for immediate monetary gain.
• Intrusion and access attacks broadly include attacks where cybercriminals access networks, servers, and other IT systems without authorization.

A range of cybersecurity software, hardware, and services are crucial to these efforts, and could experience heightened sales as cyber threats materialize:⁷

• Network security solutions protect network infrastructure from unauthorized access, wrongful use, and theft.
• Endpoint and user security solutions defend devices like computers and phones from cyberattacks, limiting inherent vulnerabilities and ensuring secure usage by users.
• Information security solutions protect data from modification, disruption, destruction, and inspection.

Notably and often overlooked, hardware cybersecurity solutions are essential to fending off attacks. While today’s digitalization means much of computing occurs in the cloud, most of our digital activity starts and ends with hardware, from data centres and servers to the computers we use to access them. Protecting these endpoints requires building security features into their design and complementing them with dedicated hardware security products. To this end, biometric scanners are becoming an important hardware tool used to improve access security. The global biometric system market is expected to grow from US$42.9 billion to US$82.9 billion by 2027, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.1%.⁸

Global cybersecurity spending continues to grow as heightened digitalization presents new targets for cybercriminals

Source: Gartner, 2021.

With annual volumes of new data on pace to reach 2.3x their 2021 levels by 2025 and the annual cost of cyberattacks expected to reach US$10.5 trillion in the same year, cybersecurity spending must accelerate in lockstep, and then some.⁹¹⁰

Companies are ramping up cybersecurity spending as attacks mount

Digital transformation is permeating all facets of business, making the private sector ever more susceptible to cybercrime. Businesses experienced 31% more cyberattacks, on average, in 2021 versus 2020.¹¹

For the private sector, cyberattacks can result in catastrophic economic losses and irreparable damage to intangible assets like intellectual property and goodwill. Ransomware attacks, which grew 66% in 2021, pose significant risk in this regard.¹² Companies facing such attacks must select from two losing options: paying out sizeable ransoms or forfeiting proprietary or customer data. Last year, on average, affected companies spent over US$800,000 per ransom payment and US$1.4 million to remediate the economic and intangible impacts of an attack.¹³

Business email compromise (BEC) attacks are potentially even more problematic. While chronically underreported, BEC attacks inflict the most financial damage.¹⁴ They are primarily conducted through phishing, an incredibly difficult tactic to defend against with every employee representing a vulnerability. BEC attacks open doors for additional cybercrimes, including ransomware, server intrusion, and encrypted threats.

In 2021, 82% of companies increased their cybersecurity budget.¹⁵ And, moving forward, 69% of companies expect to increase their budgets in 2022.¹⁶

Q: How is your cyber budget changing in 2022 (% of respondents)

Source: PwC, "2022 Global Digital Trust Insights," 2022.

Increased cyberattacks should drive continued cybersecurity sales growth. We expect companies to focus on limiting infection vectors by spending more on network security software and hardware related to firewalls, VPNs, network segmentation, workload security, and anti-virus/malware software, as well as on endpoint and user security solutions like identity and access management, email gateways, encryption, and web security. Of note, network hardware that includes next generation firewall technology, network segmentation, intrusion prevention, and secure web gateways could generate meaningful net new revenues for cybersecurity companies. Information security software and hardware should also see significant business spending, including solutions for application and cloud security, cryptography, physical IT infrastructure, and incident response.

But as prolific as digitization has been in the past five years, many major sectors of the global economy from manufacturing to health care to education are only first embracing digital business.¹⁷ As they do, they could significantly grow the pie for both existing and new cybersecurity solutions, becoming a significant new driver of cybersecurity sales.

Government efforts to fight cybercrime could potentially benefit cybersecurity stocks

A recent surge of cyberattacks on countries and governments is vaulting cybersecurity to the forefront of public sector priorities and spending.

Governments rely on networks and other IT infrastructure to transmit sensitive information in the regular course of operations. Public infrastructure is also becoming more digital. Technology like data centres and cellular and broadband networks are now seen as key infrastructure components; meanwhile, traditional components like oil and gas pipelines, electric grids, and water utilities become vulnerable as they increasingly rely on software and networks.

Cyberattacks can halt government operations, compromise sensitive data, and disrupt public services. Last year, for example, ransomware deployed against a major fuel pipeline in the United States cut East Coast states off from key energy resources for an entire week, disrupting supply chains through its impact on industrial activity and transportation. Separately, an attack on a Florida water utility provider purposefully increased the level of harmful chemicals in a town’s water supply.¹⁸

As a result, President Biden issued a far-reaching executive order in 2021 to modernize federal cyber defenses, making cybersecurity a rare area where the President can direct spending increases without worrying about Congressional gridlock. And recent spending approved by Congress through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, bipartisan support is leading to an additional US$2 billion in cybersecurity spending.¹⁹ In Europe, the EU recently made progress toward setting up a cybersecurity emergency response fund to counter large-scale cyberattacks.²⁰ And we expect public sector cybersecurity spending to direct funds to cybersecurity companies worldwide in the immediate and long term, which could benefit cybersecurity stocks.

Cybersecurity investments could offer resilience to economic challenges

Cybersecurity investments could offer resilience in a difficult macro-environment, despite the weakness growth-tilting sectors have been experiencing.

Today, cybersecurity is an essential operational expense rather than a discretionary line item that can be cut when times are tough. In fact, a recent Morgan Stanley survey found that security software is the least likely IT expense to be pared back by executives if the economy worsens. So, while economic challenges may result in decreased revenues for many technology companies, cybersecurity providers will likely continue to grow as businesses and governments seek to protect themselves.

Inflation introduces an additional dynamic that underscores cybersecurity companies’ resilience. Like most software today, cybersecurity applications are mostly cloud- and subscription-based, generating recurring revenues from online use rather than one-time unit sales. This model makes it easy for software companies to adjust pricing based on economic conditions like inflation. In some subscription-based businesses, price increases risk customer attrition; however, we do not see this as a concern for cybersecurity spending. Necessity is a powerful force, which, in this case, should enable prices to rise in line with inflation.

How to invest in cybersecurity stocks

Investors looking for exposure to cybersecurity via public equities may want to consider looking at ETFs invested in companies that generate a majority of their revenues from cybersecurity hardware, software, and products across:

• Cybersecurity software and services: Software related to network access and security, enterprise security management, home and office security, as well as services related to government and defense IT security and cybersecurity consulting.
• Cybersecurity hardware: Equipment related to on-premises network security, network access and management, as well as wirelines. We note that many cybersecurity ETFs exclude this key area, because, even in the cloud computing era, digitalization is underpinned by hardware, which has its own vulnerabilities and is therefore an essential component of cybersecurity.

Conclusion

News of cyberattacks and their impact are dominating headlines and bringing heightened focus to cybersecurity investments. As public and private sector digitalization continues, cyberattacks could become more frequent and detrimental to businesses, countries, and economies. As a result, we expect cybersecurity spending to increase at an accelerated clip, regardless of economic conditions, offering possible growth potential for cybersecurity ETFs.

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