{{r.fundCode}} {{r.fundName}} {{r.series}} {{r.assetClass}}

You are currently viewing the Canadian website. You can change your location here.

Terms and conditions for Canada

About this podcast

Today, Dave is joined by RBC Global Asset Management’s Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles. Eric provides his current view on the economy during this rapidly-evolving event, including indicators of possible stabilization and steps towards gradual recovery.

Transcript

Hello and welcome to the download, I’m your host, Dave Richardson, and I’m joined again today by Eric Lascelles, the chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. And one of the things I wanted to highlight in the podcast today is, along with having Eric regularly on this quick podcast with updates, so you can hear his view on what’s going on with current economic data and what’s going on in the markets, and how we’re working through the Covid-19 pandemic. Eric is a fantastic follow on Twitter, so I’d highly recommend that you check out whom I would describe as Canada’s hardest working economists. He also pens a macro memo, it’s called, every Monday afternoon, which is also available on the RBC Global Asset Management Client Support Site. It’s rbcgam.com/support. That is another great place to go and get new content and updates on what’s happening in markets, the global economy and the pandemic. But I thought I’d check in with Eric this morning, since he wrote his last memo on Monday, to see, with all of the different earnings reports, all the different economic data points that have been coming out this week, how has it changed his view in any way versus where he was even a few days ago? This is such a rapidly evolving event. Eric, so what would you say to that?

Certainly lots of new things coming along. I would say maybe two main themes to discuss. One is, we track real time economic indicators. It used to be good enough to look at a monthly figure and that would suffice, but things are moving so quickly. We’ve had to redo that. We’re looking at movie theater ticket sales and emergency room traffic, and things like that. And so I can say we’re seeing some stabilization in some of those measures, even some slight improvement off of, I should warn, very low bases. And so, not wonderful and hardly signalling an imminent rebound. But nevertheless, for instance, New York City emergency room traffic is substantially down. Air travel is up a little bit. Still very low in all cases, but up a little bit. We can say U.S. movie theater sales are rebounding. I should emphasize we’re talking like tens of thousands of dollars across the whole country. And so let’s not get too excited. But it was a zero for several weeks, and it’s not a zero anymore. We’ve seen U.S. raw steel production jumping a little bit again from a very low level. So at a minimum, I’m seeing evidence of stabilization at the bottom as opposed to an endless decline. So we’ll take that. That’s what we expected, but we’ll take that. So I think that’s an important element of this. And then maybe the other aspect that we’ve been thinking about as well is the nature of the recovery. And for several weeks now, including in those macro memos, we’ve been warning that the risk here is that the recovery proves even more sluggish than we were assuming. And by the way, we’ve been assuming a fairly sluggish recovery relative to a lot of forecasters out there. So the question is, does that remain true? And unfortunately, my sense is that it is still the issue here. And so part of the story is one in which governments could say tomorrow: «hey, everybody, you can go back to your normal life!» And my suspicion is people aren’t going to race out to concerts and restaurants and buy plane tickets and these sorts of things. And so there’s an organic demand side element that’s going to be slow to come back. But equally, I think we’ve gained a greater appreciation in recent weeks for the idea that even in terms of what the government say, it’s not going to be a «hey, everybody, go back to your normal activity!» It’s going to be this very incremental thing of: now dentists can go back to work and now this other group can go back. And we’re probably not going to see restaurants and concerts and theaters for a very long time. And we’re going to have a very incremental approach. And so on the positive side, we’re already starting to see some evidence of things restarting in Europe and in parts of the U.S., and Saskatchewan now talking about a fairly soon incremental restart in Canada. So maybe the restarts even a bit sooner than we’re assuming, but it’s probably going to be extremely gradual and particularly people like you and I who can work from home. My guess is we’re going to be working from home for an awfully long time just because we can and we need to get parts of the economy going that can’t function from home.

And that’s a great lead into to where I think I’ll take you the next time you appear on the podcast is start to talk about, because I know you’re trying to get your head around all of the things that are going to change and evolve based on the collective experience we’ve had, particularly business wise, economic wise, dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. So, Eric, thanks again for joining us today. Again, please follow Eric on Twitter — great information coming out regularly —, and check out that macro memo on a weekly basis and look for his TV appearances, if you want to see what Eric looks like on BNN. And everyone have a great weekend and we’ll see you next week on the download.

Disclosure

Recorded April 24, 2020

Please consult your advisor and read the prospectus or Fund Facts document before investing. There may be commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses associated with mutual fund investments. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. RBC Funds, BlueBay Funds and PH&N Funds are offered by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. and distributed through authorized dealers in Canada.

This report has been provided by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM Inc.) for informational purposes as of the date noted only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written consent of RBC GAM Inc. Additional information about RBC GAM Inc. may be found at www.rbcgam.com. This report is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment, financial or other advice and such information should not be relied upon for providing such advice. RBC GAM Inc. takes reasonable steps to provide up-to-date, accurate and reliable information, and believes the information to be so when provided. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Interest rates, market conditions, tax rulings and other investment factors are subject to rapid change which may materially impact analysis that is included in this document. You should consult with your advisor before taking any action based upon the information contained in this document.

Any investment and economic outlook information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC GAM Inc. from various sources. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBC GAM Inc., its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. RBC GAM Inc. and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC GAM Inc.'s judgment as of the indicated date of the information, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Interest rates and market conditions are subject to change. Return estimates are for illustrative purposes only and are not a prediction of returns. Actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially over shorter time periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.

A note on forward-looking statements:

This report may contain forward-looking statements about future performance, strategies or prospects, and possible future action. The words "may," "could," "should," "would," "suspect," "outlook," "believe," "plan," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "forecast," "objective" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties about general economic factors, so it is possible that predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement. These factors include, but are not limited to, general economic, political and market factors in Canada, the United States and internationally, interest and foreign exchange rates, global equity and capital markets, business competition, technological changes, changes in laws and regulations, judicial or regulatory judgments, legal proceedings and catastrophic events. The above list of important factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive. Before making any investment decisions, we encourage you to consider these and other factors carefully. All opinions contained in forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility.

® / TM Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence.

© RBC Global Asset Management Inc., 2020