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Jun 18, 2020

The COVID-19 shock altered the course of the global economy and ravaged financial markets, prompting policymakers to step in quickly and with scale. Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, combined with signs of an economic recovery as lockdowns eased, triggered a rapid rebound in risk assets.

Economy

  • Global economies were severely impacted by government-imposed lockdowns that shuttered businesses and curtailed consumer activity.
  • As countries ease lockdown measures, the most prominent risk is that the virus regains traction and forces economies into a second closure.
  • Massive global fiscal and monetary stimulus programs were announced, aimed at providing relief to households and businesses and ensuring the proper functioning of financial markets. In the U.S., the total stimulus so far amounts to more than 35% of GDP.
  • We have slashed our growth forecasts and they are now mostly below-consensus. Our base case outlook for the U.S. is for a 7.1% decline in 2020 GDP, though we recognize a variety of scenarios are possible.

Weighted average consensus real GDP

Growth estimates for major developed nations

Weighted average consensus real GDP

Note: As of May 2020. Source: Consensus Economics

Fixed Income

  • Global central banks supplied substantial monetary support by slashing short-term interest rates and expanding balance sheets by trillions of dollars.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to an all-time low of 31 basis points as investors sought safe havens and central banks ramped up bond buying.
  • The current low level of sovereign-bond yields is set to deliver unimpressive returns over our 1-year forecast horizon and possibly beyond.
  • Corporate bonds offer higher yields and widening credit spreads caused by the crisis have boosted their return potential. We think exposure to credit, if properly managed, could enhance portfolio yields and total returns.

U.S. 10-year Treasury note and returns

U.S. 10-year Treasury note and returns

Note: As of May 29, 2020. Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, RBC CM

Equity Markets

  • Major market indexes fell more than 30% in a matter of weeks in February and March as volatility surged. Our global equity composite fell to its largest discount to fair value since 2012 but the S&P 500 Index and others have already recovered two-thirds of their losses.
  • Our scenario analysis suggests further modest upside for stocks is possible as long as investor confidence stays elevated, inflation and interest rates remain low, and earnings ultimately rebound to their long-term trend.
  • Our view that stocks will provide superior returns compared to sovereign bonds, and that sovereign bonds will not provide the income or risk-diversifying properties of the past 40 years have led us to adjust the strategic neutral weights in our multi-asset and balanced portfolios in favour of stocks at the expense of bonds.

S&P 500 equilibrium

Normalized earnings & valuations

S&P 500 equilibrium

Note: Fair value estimates are for illustrative purposes only. Corrections are always a possibility and valuations will not limit the risk of damage from systemic shocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. Source: RBC GAM

For more insights from our Global Investment Outlook, click here.

Disclosure

This document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM) for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written consent of RBC GAM or its affiliated entities listed herein. This document does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or to sell any security, product or service in any jurisdiction. This document is not available for distribution to people in jurisdictions where such distribution would be prohibited.



RBC GAM is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes RBC Global Asset Management Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited, and BlueBay Asset Management LLP, which are separate, but affiliated subsidiaries of RBC.



In Canada, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (including PH&N Institutional) which is regulated by each provincial and territorial securities commission with which it is registered. In the United States, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., a federally registered investment adviser. In Europe this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. In Asia, this document is provided by RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited, which is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong.



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Any investment and economic outlook information contained in this document has been compiled by RBC GAM from various sources. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBC GAM, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. RBC GAM and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions.



Past performance is not indicative of future results. With all investments there is a risk of loss of all or a portion of the amount invested. Where return estimates are shown, these are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as a prediction of returns; actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially, especially over shorter time periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.



Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward-looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future results or events. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Do not place undue reliance on these statements because actual results or events may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Before making any investment decisions, we encourage you to consider all relevant factors carefully.



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© RBC Global Asset Management Inc., 2020