Economic Compass: Laying a Foundation

Eric Lascelles
(2012.01)

• The U.S. housing market has yet to deliver in its traditional role as a catalyst of economic recoveries.
• Promisingly, the past several months have hinted at a strengthening pulse in the U.S. housing market, and affordability metrics are now quite attractive.
• However, the recovery is likely to remain muted due to poor credit conditions, downtrodden market psychology and an enormous overhang of homes.

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Economic Compass: Déjà vu All Over Again for Europe

Eric Lascelles
(2011.11)

• Europe remains stuck in a cycle of inadequate bailouts and spreading illiquidity.
• Greek fiscal finances are still unsustainable despite the latest bailout.
• Contrary to popular sentiment, Italy appears solvent.
• Bank bailout plans are underwhelming, but may just suffice.
• Europe is unlikely to unleash a global financial crisis, but its economy is set to drag.

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Economic Compass: The Emerging Virtues of Emerging Markets

Eric Lascelles
(2011.10)

• In the near term, emerging market investments remain at the mercy of global sentiment and are beholden to a variety of sector-specific risks.
• But over the longer term, the prospects are compelling, by dint of superior productivity growth, better demographics and a protective moat of policy measures constructed after the trauma of the Asian and Tequila crises of the 1990s.

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Economic Compass: Policymakers Strike Back

Eric Lascelles
(2011.09)

• A crisis of confidence is compromising the economic recovery.
• Some argue there is nothing policymakers can do about this, given already low interest rates and heavy debt loads.
• We disagree: many creative policy options remain.
• This hardly assures a robust economic recovery, but it does tilt the balance towards a return to growth.

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