Economic Outlook

Hear directly from RBC Global Asset Management Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles in his monthly and quarterly updates. Representing RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee's (RISC) economic views, Eric shares timely insights and the expectations of RBC GAM on the global economy.

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Good growth / bad geopolitics - October 2017

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management, shares the latest views on the global economy and offers insight into today’s economic issues.

The webcast includes an audio and slide presentation.

Launch Presentation

Key Highlights

  • Global growth signals remain good, with no evidence that the economic expansion is peaking.

  • The growing tension between North Korea and the U.S. continues to be a notable geopolitical risk over the short term. RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM) believes that the countries will continue their military posturing, but short of an outright military conflagration, global economic growth will not be significantly impacted.

  • NAFTA renegotiations remain underway. As more information is revealed, RBC GAM has tweaked our outcome expectations. As it relates to Canada, we believe there is a 40% chance of a negative economic impact in the event NAFTA is terminated or substantially changed, and a 60% chance of a neutral impact if there are modest changes or no changes at all.

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve has begun to normalize its balance sheet, which is currently at five times its pre-crisis size. Normalization will take approximately four to six years to complete and will still leave the balance sheet two to three times larger than it was before the recession.

  • In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called a snap election for late October. He is hoping to win a majority to continue implementing his reforms and pro-growth policies, which have begun to bear fruit as the country's economy shows signs of the strongest growth in years.

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