Economic Outlook

Hear directly from RBC Global Asset Management Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles in his monthly and quarterly updates. Representing RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee's (RISC) economic views, Eric shares timely insights and the expectations of RBC GAM on the global economy.

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Slowing growth and more tariff analysis - August 2018

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management, shares the latest views on the global economy and offers insight into today’s economic issues.

The webcast includes an audio and slide presentation.

Launch Presentation

Key Highlights

  • Global economic leading indicators have improved significantly since the summer of 2016 and are now near their best levels in years – consistent with robust growth.

  • Since the financial crisis, the market's initial growth expectation for each year has been consistently too high. However, an above-consensus forecast is now the winning bet.

  • U.S. consumer optimism has decreased dramatically in the last two months. Consumers are more risk adverse as the threat of tariffs is ever present.

  • There are two major challenges on the horizon for the U.S – the Mueller investigation and mid-term elections – limiting Trump's ability to act on legislative matters.

  • We believe a "middling Brexit" outcome is the most likely – the Canadian model which involves a free trade of goods, but not of services or people. However, this will still result in an economic drag.

  • The Chinese economy has heated up considerably over the past year; however, policymakers are now tapping on the brakes with higher policy rates, tighter mortgage rules, higher auto taxes and a decrease in government spending. Over the long run, we expect China to continue slowing due to decreasing competitiveness.

Global Investment Outlook

Our quarterly publication that provides a detailed global investment forecast, including updates on economic and capital markets.

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Current Perspectives

There has been a lot of talk in the markets lately about the bond yield curve inverting and what that could signal for the economy. Read our latest insight.

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