Economic Outlook

Hear directly from RBC Global Asset Management Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles in his monthly and quarterly updates. Representing RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee's (RISC) economic views, Eric shares timely insights and the expectations of RBC GAM on the global economy.


Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

NAFTA, Brexit, oil and higher rates - October 2018

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management, shares the latest views on the global economy and offers insight into today’s economic issues.

The webcast includes an audio and slide presentation.

Launch Presentation
Disclaimer

Key Highlights

  • U.S. consumer confidence has soared. It is now higher than the peak of the last cycle and almost as high as the peak of the prior cycle. This is good for growth and may signal the end of the secular stagnation drag that has undermined economic growth ever since the financial crisis.

  • As the U.S. mid-term election draws closer, there is a 70-80% chance Democrats win the House in November. This would divide Congress and make it difficult to pass legislation over the next two years.

  • The era of extreme monetary stimulus is starting to end, with the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, and the Bank of Canada and Bank of England following suit, among others. The European Central Bank has suggested its bond buying will end in 2018.

  • Despite the recent increase in oil production, we see supply running slightly shy of demand in the coming year due to robust demand growth and underinvestment in new capacity. In turn, oil prices can drift up to $60-65.

  • At the time of writing, the prospects have improved for reaching a new North American trade deal.

  • We believe a "middling Brexit" outcome is the most likely - similar to the Canadian model, which involves a free trade of goods, but not of services or people. There is still an economic drag coming from this unresolved issue.

  • There have been several emerging market challenges in 2018; the strength of the U.S. dollar, the slowing of the Chinese economy and protectionist forces.


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