Economic Outlook - RBC Global Asset Management

Economic Outlook

Hear directly from RBC Global Asset Management Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles in his monthly and quarterly updates. Representing RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee's (RISC) economic views, Eric shares timely insights and the expectations of RBC GAM on the global economy.

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

China and rates and growth, oh my - December 2018

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management, shares the latest views on the global economy and offers insight into today’s economic issues.

The webcast includes an audio and slide presentation.

Launch Presentation

Key Highlights

  • While global growth remains decent, the global economy experienced several challenges in December, including: slowing growth in the Chinese economy, a tightening of financial conditions and a sharp decline in stock markets.

  • The yield curve has been flattening, suggesting that the current business cycle is growing old.

  • Although the U.S.-China trade dispute continues, a temporary truce has been reached, during which the two countries will be making an honest effort to resolve their differences.

  • We believe the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely hike interest rates in December, but the Bank of Canada is more dovish and seems likely to remain on hold. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, will end its bond buying program at the end of the month.

  • The democrats gained control of the House of Representatives during the U.S. mid-term elections in November, which could result in some political paralysis in the United States over the next few years.

  • While the decline in oil prices bodes well for the global economy, OPEC and Alberta have cut production.

  • We expect growth in Canada to be challenged by low oil prices, the country's declining global competitiveness, a slowdown in the housing market and continuing political issues.

  • While Brexit could go either way, we believe a soft Brexit is now more likely, suggesting less economic damage than previously expected.

Global Investment Outlook

Our quarterly publication that provides a detailed global investment forecast, including updates on economic and capital markets.

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There has been a lot of talk in the markets lately about the bond yield curve inverting and what that could signal for the economy. Read our latest insight.

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